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… eine spektakulär schwache Form von Gerechtigkeit

Heute hatte ich das Privileg, einem vom Helsinki Process und TERI veranstalteten „Climate Change Forum on Ethics, Law, Economics and Politics“ beizuwohnen. Das Treffen wurde von Nitin Desai geleitet, dem früheren UN Untergeneralsekretär für ökonomische und soziale Fragen, Mitverfasser des Brundtland Reports und Generalsekretär des Johannesburg Gipfels.

Im zweiten Teil des Forums trat Sir Nicolas Stern auf, der Verfasser des berühmten „Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change„. Ich kannte ihn von der Präsentation des Stern Review vor etwas mehr als einem Jahr in Berlin.

Um so beeindruckter war ich, mit welcher Klarheit er eine unbequeme Wahrheit aussprach: Die von in ihren Reden Merkel implizierte Formel von „Contraction and Convergence“, das Konvergieren der Pro-Kopf-Emissionsrechte der Länder in einigen Dekaden (oft wird 2050 genannt), ist kein großzügiges Angebot des Nordens an die Entwicklungsländer. Es ist in der Tat eine „spektakulär schwache Form von Gerechtigkeit“ („a spectacularly weak form of equity“, Nicolas Stern).

„Contraction and Convergence“ ist ein Prinzip, nachdem die Länder entsprechend ihren heutigen Emissionen mit Emissionsrechte ausgestattet werden, und diese langfristig sukzessive auf ein nachhaltiges Niveau reduziert werden, das gleichen Emissionsrechten pro Kopf entspricht. Es ist wegen seiner Einfachheit und Eleganz viel zitiert und unterstützt. Auf „Contraction and Convergence“ basieren die vielfach zitierten Reduktionsziele für Deutschland um 80% bis 2050.

Nicolas Stern verglich nun dieses Prinzip mit Menschen, die aus einem gemeinsamen Gefäß trinken. Der eine trinkt sehr viel, der andere trinkt nur sehr wenig. Das Gefäss ist schon halb leer. Der eine schöpft bisher mit einer großen Tasse, der andere mit einer kleinen. Wenn der Säufer seinem sparsamen gegenüber anbietet, dass ganz am Ende, wenn das Gefäß leer ist, beide ihren Verbrauch auf die gleiche Tassengröße reduzieren, dann ist das kein sehr großzügiges Angebot. Sondern eben „spektakulär schwach“.

So ambitioniert es also aussieht, dass die EU (konditioniert) eine Reduktion um 30% bis 2020 anbietet: Es ist leider immer noch eine sehr schwache Form von Klimagerechtigkeit. Danke, Nicolas Stern, das in so bemerkenswert deutlicher Form auszusprechen.

Einen Maßstab, was ein faires System der Teilung von Klimaschutzlasten international bedeuten könnte, bietet das Greenhouse Development Rights-Konzept. Nicolas Stern und Joachim Schellnhuber haben jetzt auch ein Exemplar unserer Publikation „The Right to Development in a Climate-Constrained-World„. Wir hoffen, es bietet ihnen interessante Anregungen.

Dieser Artikel wurde unter Klimaregime kategorisiert und ist mit verschlagwortet.

Diskussion

  1. Mr Haas presents Mr Stern as a star critic of „Contraction and Convergence“.

    Haas repeats Stern’s new argument that C&C is a „spectacularly weak form of justice“ – indeed citing [what for me is] a spectacularly weak form of C&C.

    Mr Stern is clearly mentally challenged by the issue of accounting climate change mitigation with C&C, as this fundamentally reverses Mr Stern’s opinion of C&C for a third time in one year.

    His much vaunted report, dismissed C&C as an ‚assertion‘ [not an argument] and then asserted the preposterous viuew that 550 ppmv atmosphere concnetration of CO2 can be achieved for a mere one percent of GDP. [The damages from climate change will overwhelm this account within decades – it is too little too late].

    Stern then went on to tell his students that C&C as equal rights was, „too difficult to get your head around“.

    He then went on [only weeks ago in Potsdam] and signed the nobel-laureate statement [below] asserting the: –

    “ Principle of carbon justice, i.e. striving for a long-term convergence to equal-per-capita emissions rights accomplished through a medium-term multi-stage approach accounting for differentiated national capacities.

    Mr Stern has been poorly advised and – like Mr Haas and his climate-equity clique – has not done his own homework adequately.

    The C&C calculus is clearly laid out here against the backdrop of the ‚coupled model‘ runs from the Hadley Centre now in IPCC AR4: –

    http://www.gci.org.uk/Animations/BENN_C&C_Animation_%5BTower_&_Ravens%5D.exe

    This shows the narrowing opportunity we now face and is the basis of any globally numerate response to climate change.

    Aubrey Meyer
    GCI

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    • Global target such as the 2°C-limit for planetary warming relative to
    pre-industrial levels or the (largely equivalent) halving of worldwide
    greenhouse emissions by 2050. It is useful to view those emissions as
    the product of two crucial factors, namely per capita emissions times
    population. Both of these must be appropriately addressed to attain the
    long-term stabilization target.

    • Series of consistent short and medium-term emissions reduction
    targets, essential to drive investment and technology and to minimize
    the need for greater action later.

    • Leadership role of industrialized countries, both regarding drastic
    emissions reductions and development of low/no-carbon technologies in
    order to give poor developing countries room for urgently needed
    economic growth within the boundaries of a global carbon regime.

    • Principle of carbon justice, i.e. striving for a long-term convergence
    to equal-per-capita emissions rights accomplished through a medium-term
    multi-stage approach accounting for differentiated national capacities.

    • Carbon price, as generated, for instance, through an international
    cap-and-trade system (of systems) based on auctioning permits.

    • Establishment of a powerful worldwide process supporting
    climate-friendly innovation and cooperation, combined with increased
    funding for RD&D including basic research, to facilitate technology
    transfer and proliferation.

    • Major contributions to a multinational funding system for enhancing
    adaptive capacities.

    • Scaled-up efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation and
    accelerate ecologically appropriate reforestation, achievable through
    the creation of new incentives for communities and countries to preserve
    and even increase their forests.

    • Reductions of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions.

    Participants
    Nobel Laureates

    Prof. Zhores Alferov (Nobel Prize in Physics 2000), Russian Academy of
    Sciences & Foundation Alferov, Russia

    Prof. Murray Gell-Mann (Nobel Prize in Physics 1969), Santa Fe Institute

    Prof. David Gross (Nobel Prize in Physics 2004), University of
    California, Santa Barbara

    Prof. Theodor Hänsch (Nobel Prize in Physics 2005), Ludwig Maximilians
    University, Munich

    Prof. Alan Heeger (Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2000), University of
    California, Santa Barbara

    Prof. Sir Antony Hewish (Nobel Prize in Physics 1974), University of
    Cambridge

    Prof. Klaus von Klitzing (Nobel Prize in Physics 1985), Max Planck
    Institute for Solid State Research, Stuttgart

    Prof. Walter Kohn (Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1998), University of
    California, Santa Barbara

    Prof. Wangari Muta Maathai (Nobel Prize in Peace 2004), Green Belt
    Movement

    Prof. Rudolph Marcus (Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1992), California
    Institute of Technology, Pasadena

    Prof. Sir James Mirrlees (Nobel Prize in Economics 1996), University of
    Cambridge and Chinese University, Hong Kong

    Prof. Mario Molina (Nobel Prize in Chemistry 1995), University of
    California, San Diego (revised)

    Prof. Carlo Rubbia (Nobel Prize in Physics 1984), CERN, Geneva

    Prof. Amartya Sen (Nobel Prize in Economics 1998), Harvard University

    Prof. Sir John Sulston (Nobel Prize in Physiology/ Medicine 2002),
    Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, Cambridge

    Contributors

    Dr. Angela Merkel, Federal Chancellor

    Matthias Platzeck, Minister President of Brandenburg

    Sigmar Gabriel, Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature
    Conservation and Nuclear Safety

    Dr. Annette Schavan, Federal Minister for Education and Research

    Prof. Johanna Wanka, Minister for Science, Research and Culture of the
    State of Brandenburg

    Prof. Frieder Meyer-Krahmer, State Secretary, Federal Ministry of
    Education and Research

    Prof. Markus Antonietti, Director, Max Planck Institute for Colloid and
    Boundary Layer Research, Potsdam

    Prof. Carlo Carraro, Chairman, Department of Economics, University “Ca’
    Foscari” of Venice

    Dr. Peter Frey, editor in chief, Berlin studios of ZDF German television

    Prof. Mohamed Hassan, President, African Academy of Sciences and
    Executive Director, Academy of Sciences for the Developing World/ TWAS,
    Trieste

    Barbara Hendricks, opera singer, Honorary Ambassador For Life for the
    United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Founder of the Barbara
    Hendricks Foundation for Peace and Reconciliation

    Prof. Sir Brian Hoskins, Former Head of the Meteorological Department,
    University of Reading

    Prof. Daniel Kammen, Director, Renewable and Appropriate Energy
    Laboratory (RAEL), University of California, Berkeley

    Prof. Paul Klemperer, Edgeworth Professor of Economics, Oxford
    University

    Jim Leape, Director General, World Wide Fund for Nature, Gland

    Prof. Diana Liverman, Director of Oxford University’s Environmental
    Change Institute

    Prof. Joachim Luther, Former Director of Fraunhofer Institute for Solar
    Energy Systems (ISE), Advisor to the German Government on research and
    innovation

    Ian McEwan, English novelist and Fellow of the Royal Society of
    Literature, Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, and Fellow of the
    American Academy of Arts and Sciences

    Prof. Volker ter Meulen, Professor Emeritus, Institute for Virology and
    Immunology, University Würzburg; President of the German Academy of
    Sciences, Leopoldina, Halle/Saale

    Prof. Jürgen Mlynek, President, German Helmholtz Association, Berlin

    Prof. Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Professor of Energy Economics at Vienna
    University of Technology

    Dr. Sunita Narain, Director, Centre for Science and Environment (CSE),
    New Delhi

    Prof. Michael Oppenheimer, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences
    and International Affairs in the Woodrow Wilson School and the
    Department of Geosciences at Princeton University

    Prof. Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel
    on Climate Change); Director General, TERI, New Delhi

    Prof. Kirit Parikh, Member, Planning Commission, Government of India,
    New Delhi; Professor Emeritus and Founding Director, Indira Gandhi
    Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai

    Prof. George Poste, Director, The Biodesign Institute, Arizona State
    University

    Ambassador William C. Ramsay, Deputy Executive Director, International
    Energy Agency, Paris

    Prof. Johan Rockström, Director, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)

    Dr. Karsten Sach, Director, Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature
    Conservation and Nuclear Safety, Berlin

    Achim Steiner, Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme
    (UNEP); Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations, Nairobi

    Prof. Matthias Steinmetz, Director, Astrophysical Institute Potsdam
    (AIP)

    Prof. Sir Nicholas Stern, IG Patel Professor and Director, India
    Observatory and Asia Research Centre, London School of Economics and
    Political Science

    Prof. Klaus Töpfer, Former Executive Director, United Nations
    Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi

    Prof. Robert Watson, Chief Scientist and Director for Sustainable
    Development at the World Bank

    Prof. Carl Christian von Weizsäcker, Director emeritus of the Institute
    of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne; Max Planck Institute
    for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn

    Prof. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker, Dean, Bren School of Environmental
    Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara

    Prof. Geoffrey West, President, Santa Fe Institute

    Anders Wijkman, Member of the European Parliament; Member of the Royal
    Swedish Academy of Science

    Convenor
    Prof. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate
    Impact Research (PIK); Chief Climate Advisor to the German Government

  2. Dear Aubrey,
    thanks for the nice simulation. It is really very beautiful and instructive. What it amounts to, is very fast contraction to very low levels until 2050, and immediate convergence. Per capita rights now!
    I support the general idea and I would like to see a comparison of the GDRs framework with an immediate convergence approach. Probably the GDRs framework would result in more stringent „burdens“ to be place on developed countries.
    Still, contraction and convergence is still interpreted by many (including Merkel and the Potsdam Memorandum) as amounting to convergence in the long term (e.g. 2050), not immediate convergence. It is there where I would agree with Nick Stern: This is a „spectacularly weak form of equity“. Much better than simple grandfathering, certainly. Maybe the best form of equity we may get. But still spectacularly weak.

  3. There is no equity on a dead planet. Likewise, there is no planet without rates of C&C that are fast enough to: –

    [1] stave off the positive feedback accelerator that we now step onto and [2] subject to requirement one, pre-allocate rationally under that contraction limit at a convergence rate which is an acceleration relative to one but an agreed compromise between those who argue for ’slow-late‘ versus those who argue for ‚fast-soon‘.

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