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Wall Street, Klimawandel und Welthunger: ein Interview mit Jeremy Grantham

Sehr interessant, was einer der wichtigsten Wall Street Analysten, Jeremy Grantham, der bereits die Internet- und Immobilienblase vorhergesagt hat, zu den aktuellen Entwicklungen an den Rohstoffmärkten, zu Nahrungsmittelpreisen und zum Klimawandel zu sagen hat. Hier ein paar Auszüge aus einem Interview mit dem Wall Street Journal:

  • Phosphor: „[…] the most valuable and the most critical [resource is] phosphate or phosphorous. Phosphorous cannot be made, only placed. It is necessary for all living things. And we are mining it, and it’s depleting. And I like to say, if that doesn’t give you goosebumps, then you’re tougher than me. That is a terrible equation.“
  • Kohle und Teersande: „I wouldn’t own coal, and I wouldn’t own tar sands. It’s hugely expensive to build coal utilities, and the plants they have to build for tar sands are massive, and before they get their money back I suspect that the price of solar and wind will have come down so much.
  • Nahrungsmittel: „I think oil, the metals and particularly the fertilizers, I would own—and the most important of all is food. The pressures on food are worse than anything else, and therefore, what is the solution? Very good farming, which can be done. The emphasis from an investor’s point of view is on very good farmland. It’s had a big run. You can never afford to ignore price and value, but from time to time you can get good investments in farmland, and if you’re prepared to go abroad, you can do it today.“
  • Wald: „Forestry is not a bad bargain, a little overpriced maybe, but it’s in a world where everything is overpriced today, once again, courtesy of incredibly low interest rates that push people into investing.“

Und das WJJ kommentiert das Interview folgendermaßen: „Indeed, at times he sounds like someone Greenpeace would send door-to-door with a clipboard. (He’s not above likening the coal-industry spin to the handiwork of Goebbels.) If it were anyone else, Wall Street would probably laugh him off. But because it’s Jeremy Grantham, they just might listen.

 

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Diskussion

  1. Dass ihm da jemand zuhört, glaube ich ja nicht. Schließlich sagt er dasselbe schon seit ein paar Jahren, hier z.B. in einem ausführlichen Interview in der Neuen Zürcher Zeitung von 2012.

    http://www.nzz.ch/finanzen_alt/nachrichten/das-ernaehrungsproblem-wird-unterschaetzt-1.16096968

    Auch scheint Jeremy Grantham nicht mal den Weltagrarbericht zu kennen – oder der passt nicht in sein Weltbild.

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